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For Satellite radio to compete with terrestrial radio and (what I perceive to be their real competitors) MP3 players, they need a merger. Sirius is in the weaker market position but the stronger cash and technology position, and XM owns the market. I believe this merger will occur in early 2004, and will likely be leveraged buyout of Sirius by XM. The result will be a formidable media giant that could kill ClearChannel.

If I’m right, somebody owes me a beer.


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