These competing cliches have become a touchstone of sorts in the case of a certain recently dethroned uber-goalie, and a number of local Canucks bloggers are hot-under-the-collar in response to journos insisting that the team’s only path forward is moving Luongo out to free up cap space.

It was with the goalie-gets-you-there hypothesis that many Canucks fans simply assumed that Roberto Luongo, with his ostensibly justified high salary, made it a foregone conclusion that the Canucks could go deep this year (and last year) into the playoffs.

But is it true?  Can you buy your way deep into the playoffs by splurging big on a marquee goalie?  I decided to test the theory. 

Here are a couple of quick tables that map out goaltender salaries, starting with Conference Finalists:

Chicago Blackhawks
	Starting Goalie: Khabibulin, Nikolai AGE:  35 $6.75 Million	Backup: Huet, Cristobal AGE:  32 $5.625 Million
Pittsburgh Penguins
	Starting Goalie: Fleury, Marc-Andre AGE:  23 $5.00 Million	Backup: Garon, Mathieu AGE:  30 $509,000
Detroit Red Wings
	Starting Goalie: Osgood, Chris AGE:  35 $1.417 Million	Backup: Conklin, Ty AGE:  32 $750,000
Carolina Hurricanes
	Starting Goalie: Ward, Cam AGE: 24 $2.667 Million	Backup: Leighton, Michael Age: 27 $600,000

… and here’s another showing the dropouts from the Conference Semifinals:

Vancouver Canucks
	Starting Goalie: Luongo, Roberto AGE: 29 $6.75 Million	Backup: Labarbera, Jason AGE:  28 $461,000
Washington Capitals
	Starting Goalie: Varlamov, Simeon AGE: 20 $155,000	Backup: Theodore, Jose AGE: 31 $4.5 Million
Boston Bruins
	Starting Goalie: Thomas, Tim AGE: 34 $1.1 Million	Backup: Fernandez, Manny AGE: 33 $4.333 Million
Anaheim Ducks
	Starting Goalie: Hiller, Jonas AGE:  26 $1.3 Million	Backup: Giguere, JS AGE:  31 $6 Million

Here’s what may have changed:  with today’s salary cap consciousness, overspending on a goalie means that it becomes more challenging to build a team in front of him.  This is a reality which, as I pointed out the other day, is hitting Gillis in the face at the moment with the Sedins asking for a fortune and more than 10% of the team’s salary budget tied up in one player, Roberto Luongo, and another big chunk presumably being allocated to The Twins.

Perhaps more interesting than the above table is this chart I whipped up (covering the regular season, 2008-2009) which shows that splurging on goalies doesn’t necessarily deliver absolutes either:

What’s the lesson from all this data?  First:  clearly, individual salary is not entirely predictive of individual performance.  Second:  When you account for outliers like Chicago, Detroit and Carolina, there is a slight inverse corresponence to goals against and goalie spending (ie. you get scored on more when you spend less on goalies) for NHL teams.  However, the margin of difference is only about 20%, and this year four of the six biggest goalie spenders were gone within the first two rounds.  Only Chicago (which is extremely top-heavy on goalie salary) and Pittsburgh (at $5.5M) remain among the big-spending playoff teams.  What makes the difference at the top end?  A hot rookie.  Or, in the case of Detroit, an underappreciated veteran with a bad agent.

Chicago found itself in a fortunate position this year with a fairly low player salary budget (so many rookies and sophomores) that it could invest in fairly known quantities in Huet and Khabiboulin.  That’s depth that may be required to take them through the next two rounds in the playoffs, and it is a strategy that is quite unique to the NHL — but shows that Chicago is the first team to truly embrace the cap and turn a limitation into a key advantage.

So for the playoffs this year, there’s a really interesting opportunity to see which strategy prevails.  What does this mean for the Canucks?  As the very sage Ben Nevile, one of my commenters pointed out the other day, Schneider could be the difference — but for now, he’s very much a wildcard.

The Canucks could indeed trade Luongo if Schneider were to make a Cam Ward-ian appearance at the beginning of next season, and this could provide the team with an immense advantage overall … but until then?  Gillis is hamstrung, unless he can throw together a deal to move Luongo and get a veteran lower-priced goalie in return as a part of the package, which is quite possible.  But few teams have the cap room, and you’d hope to move him to the East Coast so as to prevent having to deal with him on a routine basis all season long (I doubt very much he’s interested in moving to Edmonton anyway).

The major lesson of the above analysis, therefore, is that a goalie on his own might get you through a season — but not the playoffs.  That takes a broader depth chart, thanks to video preperation, off-ice scoring strategy, and the isolation of a goalie’s weaknesses that emerges from playing him 6 or 7 nights in a two-week period.  Had Luongo not been injured and had such a slow recovery when he did return, I’m sure he could have propped the Canucks up to a league-leading points total … but with modern-day goalie-busting techniques, such as he and Varlamov felt in their respective final games, teams can no longer (if they ever could) ride the goalie through the playoffs.

The Canucks in particular are at a dangerous precipice between the pipes… but from threat comes opportunity.  Do the Canucks trade their best player to address both?

Anyway, what’s afoot right now is a major hellstorm of flame email targeted at this moron. He made a big mistake when he took a piss on Canada. His email is WoodyPaige [at] aol [dot] com . Make it hurt. Pass it on.

-Ian.

—- http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1002,111%7E20077,00.html

By Woody Paige Denver Post Sports Columnist

Thursday, April 12, 2001 – Woe is Canada.

I feel sorry for Canadians.

“Canada is a country where nothing ever seems to happen,” wrote author Carol Shields. “A country you wouldn’t ask to dance a second waltz.” A country that rarely has a team in the second waltz of the playoffs.

Other than arguing over which language to speak, hockey is the national pastime.

Yet, a Canadian hockey team hasn’t won an NHL championship since all the people spoke Iroquoisese, eh?

And that streak won’t end this year.

Three of the four Canadian clubs in the playoffs will be eliminated in the first round, and the only reason there won’t be a four-gone conclusion is that Toronto is playing Ottawa. One must advance – and will be dumped in the second round.

Take the Vancouver Caknuckleheads. Please. They open the postseason tonight at The Can against the Colorado Avalanche.

Vancouver’s Marc Crawford, who used to coach a talented team, is reduced to rolling out goons, buffoons and Princess Dyes. Three Vancouver forwards – and the all-important assistant equipment manager – have dyed their hair blond before the first game. The Avs must be scared out of their sweaters. The Caknuckleheads are going to try to dazzle ’em with their ‘dos.

Given the brute style of hockey the Caknuckleheads prefer to play, Avalanche coach Bob Hartley would be wise not to to risk injury by scratching Ray Bourque, Rob Blake, Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg and Patrick Roy (none of whom has gotten a roots tint) and let the Hershey Bears win four in a row.

The Caknuckleheads, making a playoff appearance for the first time in five seasons, are missing Markus Naslund and Andrew Cassels and don’t know whether to start Bob Essena or Dan Cloutier in goal. Doesn’t matter. The Avs won’t take pity on either. The only edge Vancouver has is that Crawford’s hair is more stylish than Hartley’s. The Avalanche management doesn’t even have to short-sheet Crow’s bench. The only exciting matchup in the series is Crawford vs. Pierre Lacroix.

Can’t we get this over with and get on with a good United States opponent?

North Dakota calls itself “The Peace Garden State” because there is a peace garden (which reportedly blooms one weekend in July) on the border with Canada, as if we have to worry about peace with our northern neighbors, who still bow to a queen who lives on a distant island. Canada may be the world’s second-largest country in land mass, but a U.S. invasion and takeover would be finished by brunch.

Like this series – which will be over after three games and six minutes into the fourth.

Once again, by the conference finals, Canadians will be innocent bystanders, cheering only for Don Cherry’s outfits and outbursts.

The NHL is too wound up about expanding the playoffs when, instead, the league should be aiding and abetting Canada.

If it weren’t for Canada, where would so many of us have hidden out during the Vietnam War?

There should be realignment to give the Canadians, including the Canadiens (and their new Colorado owner), hope in the postseason.

Canada should an occasional prospect for reclaiming the Stanley Container.

As always, I’m here with a solution.

Divide the league into four conferences – North, South, Midwest/West and Canada.

North: Buffalo, Boston, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Detroit.

South: Washington, Carolina, Nashville, St. Louis, Dallas, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Florida.

Midwest/West: Minnesota, Chicago, Colorado, Phoenix, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim and Columbus.

Canada: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary.

The top four teams from each conference – a total of 16, same as now – would move onto the playoffs, with Nos. 1 and 4 and 2 and 3 meeting in the opening round.

For instance, the conference champion, Colorado, would play Phoenix, and San Jose would play Los Angeles.

After two intraconference series, the winners would reach the conference finals.

What’s different? Canada annually would be guaranteed of sending four teams to the playoffs and would be assured of having one in the conference finals, with a 50 percent chance of being represented in the Stanley Cup Finals. As an example, this year it could have been the Avalanche from the Midwest/West, Dallas from the South, Detroit from the North and Ottawa from the Canada conferences.

Canada would alternate in the conference finals against the other three.

There.

Otherwise, Canadians are forced to watch ice fishing and curling in May and June.