These competing cliches have become a touchstone of sorts in the case of a certain recently dethroned uber-goalie, and a number of local Canucks bloggers are hot-under-the-collar in response to journos insisting that the team’s only path forward is moving Luongo out to free up cap space.

It was with the goalie-gets-you-there hypothesis that many Canucks fans simply assumed that Roberto Luongo, with his ostensibly justified high salary, made it a foregone conclusion that the Canucks could go deep this year (and last year) into the playoffs.

But is it true?  Can you buy your way deep into the playoffs by splurging big on a marquee goalie?  I decided to test the theory. 

Here are a couple of quick tables that map out goaltender salaries, starting with Conference Finalists:

Chicago Blackhawks
	Starting Goalie: Khabibulin, Nikolai AGE:  35 $6.75 Million	Backup: Huet, Cristobal AGE:  32 $5.625 Million
Pittsburgh Penguins
	Starting Goalie: Fleury, Marc-Andre AGE:  23 $5.00 Million	Backup: Garon, Mathieu AGE:  30 $509,000
Detroit Red Wings
	Starting Goalie: Osgood, Chris AGE:  35 $1.417 Million	Backup: Conklin, Ty AGE:  32 $750,000
Carolina Hurricanes
	Starting Goalie: Ward, Cam AGE: 24 $2.667 Million	Backup: Leighton, Michael Age: 27 $600,000

… and here’s another showing the dropouts from the Conference Semifinals:

Vancouver Canucks
	Starting Goalie: Luongo, Roberto AGE: 29 $6.75 Million	Backup: Labarbera, Jason AGE:  28 $461,000
Washington Capitals
	Starting Goalie: Varlamov, Simeon AGE: 20 $155,000	Backup: Theodore, Jose AGE: 31 $4.5 Million
Boston Bruins
	Starting Goalie: Thomas, Tim AGE: 34 $1.1 Million	Backup: Fernandez, Manny AGE: 33 $4.333 Million
Anaheim Ducks
	Starting Goalie: Hiller, Jonas AGE:  26 $1.3 Million	Backup: Giguere, JS AGE:  31 $6 Million

Here’s what may have changed:  with today’s salary cap consciousness, overspending on a goalie means that it becomes more challenging to build a team in front of him.  This is a reality which, as I pointed out the other day, is hitting Gillis in the face at the moment with the Sedins asking for a fortune and more than 10% of the team’s salary budget tied up in one player, Roberto Luongo, and another big chunk presumably being allocated to The Twins.

Perhaps more interesting than the above table is this chart I whipped up (covering the regular season, 2008-2009) which shows that splurging on goalies doesn’t necessarily deliver absolutes either:

What’s the lesson from all this data?  First:  clearly, individual salary is not entirely predictive of individual performance.  Second:  When you account for outliers like Chicago, Detroit and Carolina, there is a slight inverse corresponence to goals against and goalie spending (ie. you get scored on more when you spend less on goalies) for NHL teams.  However, the margin of difference is only about 20%, and this year four of the six biggest goalie spenders were gone within the first two rounds.  Only Chicago (which is extremely top-heavy on goalie salary) and Pittsburgh (at $5.5M) remain among the big-spending playoff teams.  What makes the difference at the top end?  A hot rookie.  Or, in the case of Detroit, an underappreciated veteran with a bad agent.

Chicago found itself in a fortunate position this year with a fairly low player salary budget (so many rookies and sophomores) that it could invest in fairly known quantities in Huet and Khabiboulin.  That’s depth that may be required to take them through the next two rounds in the playoffs, and it is a strategy that is quite unique to the NHL — but shows that Chicago is the first team to truly embrace the cap and turn a limitation into a key advantage.

So for the playoffs this year, there’s a really interesting opportunity to see which strategy prevails.  What does this mean for the Canucks?  As the very sage Ben Nevile, one of my commenters pointed out the other day, Schneider could be the difference — but for now, he’s very much a wildcard.

The Canucks could indeed trade Luongo if Schneider were to make a Cam Ward-ian appearance at the beginning of next season, and this could provide the team with an immense advantage overall … but until then?  Gillis is hamstrung, unless he can throw together a deal to move Luongo and get a veteran lower-priced goalie in return as a part of the package, which is quite possible.  But few teams have the cap room, and you’d hope to move him to the East Coast so as to prevent having to deal with him on a routine basis all season long (I doubt very much he’s interested in moving to Edmonton anyway).

The major lesson of the above analysis, therefore, is that a goalie on his own might get you through a season — but not the playoffs.  That takes a broader depth chart, thanks to video preperation, off-ice scoring strategy, and the isolation of a goalie’s weaknesses that emerges from playing him 6 or 7 nights in a two-week period.  Had Luongo not been injured and had such a slow recovery when he did return, I’m sure he could have propped the Canucks up to a league-leading points total … but with modern-day goalie-busting techniques, such as he and Varlamov felt in their respective final games, teams can no longer (if they ever could) ride the goalie through the playoffs.

The Canucks in particular are at a dangerous precipice between the pipes… but from threat comes opportunity.  Do the Canucks trade their best player to address both?

*Hockey 2002: Go north, young man – and woman*

December 25, 2002

By Daren Smith SportsTicker Hockey Editor

JERSEY CITY, New Jersey (Ticker) – It’s been almost a decade since a Canadian team captured the Stanley Cup. But make no mistake, Canada was the center of the hockey universe in 2002.

Canada reclaimed its hockey supremacy during two rollercoaster weeks in February in Salt Lake City.

The 2002 Winter Games did not begin well for a country that had gone a half-century since its last Olympic men’s hockey gold medal. Canada was whipped by Sweden in its first game, looked unimpressive in a win over Germany and settled for a tie with the Czech Republic to complete the preliminary round.

That did not sit well with the folks back home. So Team Canada general manager Wayne Gretzky pulled a page from his nation’s rich hockey history and launched into a vitriolic defense of the team that conjured memories of Phil Esposito’s sweat-drenched plea during the 1972 Summit Series.

“I just felt that the team was feeling a little bit stressful, a little bit tight, and I just felt I had to step forward and get all the focus off the guys and turn the focus in a different direction,” Gretzky explained later.

The pieces began to fall into place as the Canadians edged Finland, 2-1, then blitzed overmatched Belarus, 7-1, to earn a spot in the gold medal game. Tiny Belarus had pulled one of the great upsets in Olympic hockey by eliminating the Swedes.

Awaiting Canada was the United States, the only unbeaten team in the tournament. History appeared to rest with the Americans, who were unbeaten in 24 consecutive contests on U.S. soil.

But Gretzky had a secret weapon. Before the Olympic tournament began, ice maker Trent Evans, an Edmonton native, buried a “loonie” – a $1 Canadian coin – under the faceoff circle at center ice.

“The Greeks built good luck hero statues of Hercules and Adonis, the Irish have the Blarney Stone and four-leaf clovers and the Canadians have the Salt Lake Loonie,” Hockey Hall of Fame curator Phil Pritchard said.

The loonie earned a spot in the Hall of Fame thanks to Canada’s 5-2 victory in the gold medal game.

Eight months after leading the Colorado Avalanche <“>http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/7/7/> scored two goals and set up two others for Canada. He got the go-ahead goal on the power play with 1:41 to go in the second period, assisted on Jarome Iginla <.”>http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/6/686/>. “Winning the gold kind of reassures Canada.”

Two days before the Canadian men ended their drought, the women avenged their only loss in major international competition with a 3-2 triumph over the United States.

The U.S. defeated Canada to win the inaugural women’s hockey gold medal four years earlier in Nagano. But Canada got even on American soil.

Hayley Wickenheiser, the Gretzky of Canadian women’s hockey, put her team in front just over four minutes into the second period, and Jayna Hefford scored the back-breaker just a second before period ended.

The NHL took off nearly three weeks to allow its players to participate in a second straight Winter Games. Once the break was over, the Detroit Red Wings <“>http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/teams/car/> in five games.

The turning point was Game Three, when 41-year-old Igor Larionov <“>http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/2/260/> also retired.

But the Red Wings don’t rebuild, they reload. Free agent Curtis Joseph <“>http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/teams/ott/> at $95 million, Calgary Flames <“>http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/teams/edm/> at $86 million.

Those are the teams with the most to lose as the league struggles to reach 2003-04, when its collective bargaining agreement with the NHL Players Association expires.

And that’s the story that figures to dominate the headlines as hockey begins the new year.

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