Since I made my purchase, though, there have been three major developments:

1. Apple announced there will be an SDK. This seems (because of odd timing) that either the announcement or possibly the entire program is the result of bowing under pressure built up within the developer (and user) marketplace, or the fact that with jailbreaking they’ve lost control of the 3rd party developers already.
2. Various analysis is leading to a consensus that Apple profits as much as $565 per iPhone, assuming you keep it hooked up to AT&T. Roughly $432 of that comes from the payments from AT&T to Apple over the course of your two-year contract.
3. AT&T said it has activated 1.1M iPhones, but Apple says it has sold more than 1.4M iPhones. This means that there are 250K-300K iPhones which have obviously been unlocked. Unlocking your iPhones means that Apple is losing out on almost $130 million in gross profit over two years already. AT&T loses entirely. Ouch.

So, what’s a self-respecting geek to do? The reality is that the iPhone is enticing. Even though the call failure rate is actually pretty high (not sure if this is true of locked iPhones) it is an excellent phone with great acoustics and with a tremendous UI.

I’ve noticed some real flaws, of course: The fact that this is the first Apple device with a keyboard that can’t copy & paste in over 10 years should be embarrassing to Steve-O, as would the fact that you can’t Search anywhere on the platform. The fact that although it has Bluetooth you can’t talk to it from your bluetooth-enabled Mac rather contradicts Apple’s entire modus operandi with regard to connectivity, as does the astonishing iRealization that it inexplicably uses iTunes, and not iSync to.. uh… Sync.. Ouch.

As a new unlocked iPhone user, Apple still might be at war with you. But the reality is that these problems are largely software-fixable. Apple will solve them, or some plucky third-party developer will step in and hand-grenade Apple’s stranglehold on the users.

The best way to play the iPhone game is not to abstain from purchasing one (I know you want to) until RSJ opens the platform properly… The best way to launch your missile attack and enter the iPhone war is to buy one, unlock it immediately, and take it to your favourite GSM carrier (using it with or without the data plan — I’m finding free WiFi to be quite readily available most of the places I want to do email etc.).

In this way, you vote with your feet. And your wallet. And any vote against AT&T is a good one, in my view.

And if half or more of iPhone buyers point their radios at “anyone but AT&T” it’ll start to hit Apple where it lives, and they’re realize that the Blackberry-style lock-in is not the appropriate business model for invoking change in the wireless industry.

Apple’s Bluetooth Keyboard and Mouse combination is still fairly unique to the industry as an OEM option,but customers just the same are likely fairly accustomed to ordering their PCs and receiving all of the parts required to operate it at more-or-less the same time. Now that Apple is drop-shipping straight from China many of its iMacs, Minis, PowerBooks, and Mac Pros the logistics of having these, the AppleCare certificates, and the accessories (some of which still originate in the US) arrive at the same time are clearly difficult, and at present all of the conflicting arrivals are creating some laughable deliveries.

We’re no exception. Our new demo PC is a Mac Mini 2.0GHz, and we hurriedly unboxed it yesterday and hooked it up to our 47″ 1080p display. Nice. But … oops … no keyboard and mouse. I returned to my order sheet to see if I’d remembered to get one, and noticed that the ship date for our wireless keyboard and mouse bundle is not until September 19 (ship date for the Mini was August 14 — straight outta Shenzen).

Clearly they must have had an unexpected run on these, likely due to the new iMacs, but is your backstock of these so limited that one spike can bog down the whole supply line? Or are we in store for another notorious Apple event: the mysterious product revision?

Probably not. Just seems like even after 10+ years of direct sales, Apple still can’t quite get it right. In the meantime, we’ll control the Mini from our MacBook Pros (thanks again VNC). If this had gone to some ordinary punter then he who need only be called Steve might’ve ruined Back-To-School.

If, in a few weeks, it turns out that Apple’s iPhone is going to become another delicate rosebud in the AT&T Wireless walled garden, there are a number of candidates waiting in the wings for those of us who’ve seen this as the bazaar‘s big chance to topple the cathedral. One of the more interesting ideas is the OpenMoko phone.

Yes, it’s a linux device, and no, there is no way to lock it. Furthermore, you will likely never be able to purchase it from your local wireless carrier for pennies, along with a two-year commitment. When people are looking for carriers and handset makers to break open that walled garden, what they’re really looking for is for mobile devices to be more like PCs (install whatever you want on it, use it the way you’d like to, support it yourself), and for the wireless data connection to be more like the internet (flat-rate, all-you-can-eat, don’t mess with my packets). These are market concepts which are rather foreign to the carriers whose networks we depend on.

OpenMoko, as this presentation attests, is pursuing just that model. Phone-as-PC, with linux and a solid widget/application framework under the hood. Under OpenMoko.org, developers are exchanging ideas and sharing code in a kind of SourceForge for the OpenMoko platform. Backed by Taiwan-based FIC, one of the world’s largest contract technology manufacturers, this platform looks as though it may have some legs, but it will likely hit the market in some other form and via a short list of different name brands. At the moment it’s just a reference design.

The hardware supplied to developers (and only developers at this stage) by FIC is named the Neo1973. It’s powered by a Samsung SoC S3C2410AL 266MHz ARM9. Standard memory includes 128MB SDRAM and an internal NAND flash, with apparent room for more (including via the MicroSD socket). The Quad-band GSM radio unit by Texas Instruments connected by an internal serial bus to the SoC is also pretty spiffy. But wait, there’s more:

• 480×640 Active-Matrix Touchscreen
  
• a WiFi chip is on the horizon, Bluetooth 2.0 built-in
  
• GPS receiver
  

Will this really shake up the market? FIC really seems to hope so, and is investing to make sure it goes somewhere. What’s clear is that with devices like this one, the Trolltech phone, Nokia’s first tentative step with the 770 Internet Tablet, Linux is going to have a startling disruptive effect on existing mobile platforms like Symbian and Windows Mobile. And very likely it’ll have the greatest likelihood of putting the wireless companies, especially 3G GSM carriers, in their place.

Time will tell.

-Ian.

By Joe Wilcox Staff Writer, CNET News.com January 6, 2003, 4:00 AM PT

Apple Computer on Tuesday is expected to unveil a new portable product aimed at bolstering the company’s strategy to make itself into a major player in home entertainment, sources and analysts said.

The product, which is expected to be shown off during a keynote speech by CEO Steve Jobs at Macworld in San Francisco on Tuesday, will come with 802.11g and Bluetooth wireless capabilities and serve to make the Mac a more appealing “digital hub” than Windows XP PCs, according to sources. Machines with Windows XP Media Center Edition can be used to record TV shows, similar to digital video recorders (DVR) such as TiVo boxes, and catalog music and video.

What the product does exactly, however, remains shrouded in mystery. Some sources and analysts believe that it will be similar to the tablet computers released by Acer and others late last year. These are full-fledged portable computers complete with handwriting recognition and handwriting input.

Others, however, say it will be a device geared toward playing or capturing video. By incorporating both 802.11g and Bluetooth wireless capabilities, the device could connect to both upcoming Apple PCs (Apple has said it will support the 802.11g wireless networking standard) and the latest digital cameras and video recorders. A standard TV jack would allow the device to be hooked up to TVs as well and function as a DVR or as a bridge to let the TV act like a DVR.

Then again, it could be something entirely different, as the company has proven adept at confounding speculation preceding the convention before. An Apple reperesentative would not comment on new products ahead of the show.

One thing that is not expected at the show are new computers. Because of a relatively modest inventory bloat, Apple is delaying new models, according to sources.

Analysts note that Apple has all the pieces in place to deliver a tablet-like computer. Such a computer, outfitted with Mac OS X 10.2, Apple’s Inkwell handwriting recognition technology, iSync data synchronization capabilities and 802.11g and Bluetooth wireless would be a formidable entry.

Bluetooth would remove the need for a docking station as the mouse and keyboard would connect wirelessly. With speeds up to 54 megabits per second (mbps), 802.11g wireless networking would allow the transfer of large data files or video without the need of cables.

“That kind of device would make a lot of sense,” said NPD Techworld analyst Stephen Baker. “The idea of the digital hub is to try and tie a bunch of different product types together but provide a lot of mobility of your data–your TV entertainment data, your music data, your digital data. This kind of device would have that.”

IDC analyst Roger Kay agreed. “If it were really cool it would generate a lot of buzz and maybe even a few sales.”

A tablet computer, however, would be risky. These devices generally sell for more than $2,000, or more expensive than most notebook computers. Overall tablet sales in 2003 are expected to be fairly small: Gartner projected first-year Tablet PC portable sales of 425,000, or about 1 percent of the notebook market, while IDC said it could go up to 775,000.

Typically, Apple’s “cool” products have done well when they are relatively cheap. The first iMac, targeted at new computer users, and the iPod music player have sold well. The cube, geared for professionals and carrying a corporate price tag, did not sell well. And sales of the the flat-panel iMac, which was unveiled at last years Macworld, have cooled after an initial flurry.

iPod II But some analysts don’t believe the new product will be a tablet, but a successor to Apple’s iPod music player. The new device would have video capabilities and possibly a touch screen and wireless capabilities. As such, the device would be similar to the portable video player unfurled by Intel last year. Sonicblue is currently marketing the Intel-designed device.

“I think any rumors about a tablet computer are a smokescreen for iPod II,” said Richard Doherty, president of research firm Envisioneering Group.

Technology Business Research analyst Tim Deal agreed. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see Apple introduce an iPod with touch-screen capabilities as well as additional applications to include cell-phone connectability and gaming as it continues to evolve into a fully functional PDA,” he said. “A wireless iPod with bolstered display features would allow users to share and view digital (pictures) and videos on the fly.”

Doherty said Apple has been working on a video-capable iPod-like device for some time. “Originally, Apple had planned to announce iPod II at Expo Tokyo,” he said. In December, IDG canceled next month’s Macworld Expo/Tokyo. “We think the product can be announced, if not shipped now,” Doherty added.

The iPod II, in fact, is one of three principal pieces of hardware in Apple’s labs that Apple has shown analysts but not officially announced yet. The company is also working on computers that will contain IBM’s 32-bit and 64-bit chip and a computer with a 3D screen, similar to the screens recently unveiled by Sharp. Of course, Doherty added that not everything in the lab eventually goes public.

Whether tablet or iPod, emphasis on video would be one of the new product’s distinguishing features, Doherty said. Apple could further advance its digital media strategy around MPEG-4, the successor to the MPEG-2 format widely used for Hollywood movie DVDs.

“Nobody has better MPEG-4 tools than Apple,” Doherty said.

The ripe and the unripe During his keynote address Tuesday, Jobs also is expected to unveil new versions of the company’s digital media programs, or “i” applications. But consumers will have to pay as much as $50 for new versions of iDVD, iPhoto and iMovie, which will be sold together as a bundle. Apple released new versions of iCal and iSync on Thursday.

Bluetooth and next-generation 802.11g wireless networking will be important parts of the Macworld announcements, sources said. Apple plans to release a new version of its AirPort wireless base station using 802.11g, as the company moves up from the slower 802.11b that moves data up to 11mbps.

Meanwhile, the Cupertino, Calif.-based company apparently has delayed launching new Macs ready for Macworld until later in January, while the company sells out stock left over from the holidays, according to sources. When available, some of the new Macs are expected to include support for 802.11g and Bluetooth wireless.

The “quarter’s financial results will undoubtedly show weaker-than-usual holiday sales for Apple,” Deal said of the decision to delay new Macs.

Inventory information from distributors Ingram Micro and Tech Data indicate Apple is sitting on modest inventory–anywhere from one to three weeks–in most product categories. But some products are considerably backordered, such as the 5GB and 10GB iPod for the Mac, AirPort base station and 15-inch flat-panel monitor. Based on similar past situations, the backorders would suggest new products are coming in these categories. But sources said to watch for Apple to drop the 15-inch flat-panel monitor as the company replaces the current 17-inch display and adds a new, 19-inch model. The new monitors could debut on Tuesday, but are more likely to appear when Apple announces new Mac models.

No matter what happens on Tuesday, “The innovation ratio will be much higher than Apple’s 5 percent market share,” Doherty said.

———–

SONY/Ericsson support Bluetooth in their current round of phones, Apple has already demonstrated interoperability with them in shipping product, and Apple has mysteriously incorporated robust Bluetooth support into OSX Jaguar.

-Ian.

On Thursday, September 26, 2002, at 04:23 PM, Anson Lee wrote:

> And while we’re on the topic of the phone/pda
>
> An article that claims to have stumbled across the Apple hiPhone.
>
> Nice rendering, but what’s with that Apple logo?
>
> -Anson
>
> http://www.eprairie.com/news/viewnews.asp?newsletterIDA48
>
> Apple, Motorola Avert Confirmation of Unannounced Cell Phone
> 9/26/2002
>
> ePrairie has obtained these three photographs (dated September 2002)
> of an
> unannounced Apple cell phone called the Applele hiPhone R4 CHICAGO
> (Exclusive) – A picture can tell a thousand words. Leaked to the right
> place
> at the right time, some pictures of some products can even tell a
> story of a
> new venture by an unsuspecting company that has decided to silence the
> word.
> Well, at least for now.
>
> Such is the case with Apple Computer – known usually for making
> computers
> and MP3 players and software – regarding pictures of a new Apple cell
> phone
> that have been disclosed to ePrairie. As seen on the right, they sport
> the
> grace and colorful styling you’re used to from Apple’s computers but
> in a
> decidely more mobile fashion.
>
> Upon confronting Apple with the discovery, Nathalie Welch, a
> spokeswoman for
> the company, wasn’t interested in revealing any details. In fact, she
> wasn’t
> even interested in confirming its existence.
>
> “I can neither confirm nor deny the rumors that Apple is developing a
> cell
> phone or discuss unannounced products,” Welch said in an e-mail to
> ePrairie.
>
> Representatives from Motorola – a local company that has been known for
> working closely with Apple – also declined to confirm or deny whether
> or not
> the Schaumburg, Ill.-based powerhouse was or will be involved in
> developing
> the phone’s chipset. But several analysts, who say Motorola would be a
> logical partner, also say the release of a cell phone would make sense
> for
> Apple.
>
> “It would fit with Apple’s whole digital universe strategy in which
> the PC
> is the hub of your digital universe and the iPod (Apple’s mobile MP3
> player)
> is a peripheral,” said Kevin Hunt, a research analyst at Thomas Weisel
> Partners who covers Apple but hadn’t heard of a cell phone in the
> works.
>
> He added: “Apple has been very vehement that they wouldn’t get into
> handhelds because they think handhelds will go away and blend into a
> cell
> phone, so it would make more sense to come out with a cell phone.” The
> phones look much like Apple’s older iMacs in terms of the vibrant
> colors,
> prompting Hunt to say: “They do have some of the coolest-looking
> products.”
>
> Other analysts, though, are less convinced: “I’ve talked to some
> component
> manufacturers that say Apple’s going to do this and some that say they
> won’t,” said Dan Niles, an analyst that covers Apple at Lehman
> Brothers who
> has heard conversation of an Apple cell phone.
>
> He added: “I’m not sure how this fits in Apple’s current business
> strategy.
> I don’t view it as synergistic as the iPod. Yes, you can transfer your
> contact list [from your computer] with a cell phone, but it hasn’t
> necessarily been proven that people are using the data capabilities of
> their
> phones anyway.”
>
> Hunt says that Motorola and IBM have banded together to develop chips
> for
> Apple’s power PCs (the G4), and because Apple wouldn’t make its own
> cell
> phone chips, Motorola would be a likely vendor. He adds that the cell
> phone
> would probably be a combination device that has much of the same
> functionality as a handheld.
>
>> From Motorola’s vantage point, the sense is similar to what Apple is
>> saying
> but with the added notion of a sensible synergy.
>
> “I can’t comment on rumors,” said Amy Halm, director of communications
> for
> Motorola’s networking and computing group, “but I can say that Apple
> is one
> of Motorola’s most valued customers and has been for a very long time.
> Apple’s customers are some of the most passionate customers in the
> world.
> Every time Apple introduces a new product, they have the most loyal
> following of any company I’ve ever seen.”
>
> In terms of the chances for success in the marketplace, Hunt says this
> would
> be a very new market for Apple that would complement its own product
> line
> rather than try to compete with the big cell phone makers.
>
> He says Apple – one of the most “tightlipped” companies he’s ever
> covered in
> terms of speaking about products before they’re ready to ship – would
> likely
> begin talking about the phones in the middle of 2003 in anticipation
> for the
> next Macworld trade show. Hunt says the price point for the combination
> device might be between $300 and $500, or that of a higher-end phone.
>
> The pictures obtained by ePrairie named the phone the Applele hiPhone
> R4 and
> were dated with a September 2002 time stamp.
>
> By ADAM FENDELMAN
> Editor-in-Chief
> Reporter’s Beat: Telecom
> adam [at] eprairie [dot] com

Apple’s Chief in the Risky Land of the Handhelds By JOHN MARKOFF

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 18 — It has long been Silicon Valley’s favorite guessing game: What is Steven P. Jobs going to do next?

The question is particularly engrossing as Apple Computer prepares to introduce the new version of its Macintosh OS X software operating system.

There are signs that, with the new version of the Macintosh OS, Mr. Jobs, Apple’s founder, chairman and chief executive, may be approaching a precipice like the one that led to the downfall seven years ago of the man who was then Apple’s chief executive, John Sculley.

Mr. Sculley’s great tumble came after he staked his and Apple’s reputation on the ill-fated Newton hand-held computer — an ambitious product based on handwriting-recognition technology that was ahead of its time. And now come signs that Mr. Jobs means to take Apple back to the land of the handhelds, but this time with a device that would combine elements of a cellphone and a Palm-like personal digital assistant.

Mr. Jobs and Apple decline to confirm those plans. But industry analysts see evidence that Apple is contemplating what inside the company is being called an “iPhone.”

Among the evidence, they say, is recent behind-the-scenes wrangling between Palm and Apple over linking Palm’s own devices to Apple’s new operating system — apparently with little cooperation on Apple’s part.

Analysts also cite Apple’s deal with Pixo, the tiny company that designed the software for Apple’s popular iPod MP3 music player; that deal includes a license for Apple to use Pixo’s software with a second product.

And analysts note that the presence of a variety of features in the new Macintosh OS software that would make more sense in a hand-held device than a desktop computer.

“When you connect the dots, you end up at a phone,” said Charles Wolf, a financial analyst who follows Apple for Needham & Company.

Compared with the Newton, which was delivered prematurely in 1993 to a market not yet ready for such products, Apple’s new device would reach a field in which other companies have already plowed the ground — including giants like Microsoft, Nokia and Motorola, as well as start-ups like Handspring and Danger. This crowded field could pose risks for Apple, if its product were seen to fall short of the competition.

And yet, entering an already established market could give Mr. Jobs the opportunity to show off his and Apple’s vaunted innovation and marketing skills.

Certainly, Apple’s push into the market for a hand-held communicator would be an abrupt departure for Mr. Jobs, who continues publicly to disavow talk of such a move. But analysts and people close to the company say that the plan is under way and that the evidence is manifest in the features and elements of the new version of the Macintosh operating system.

Mr. Jobs — who was a co-founder of Apple and handpicked Mr. Sculley as its president, only to be forced out by him in 1985 — returned five years ago when the company was on the brink of collapse.

In a remarkable turnaround effort, Mr. Jobs has taken pains to distance Apple from the Sculley-Newton legacy. He canceled the Newton soon after returning and has pooh-poohed the industry’s personal digital assistants as “junk” and worse.

Behind the scenes, though, Mr. Jobs has been actively exploring the computing world beyond the desktop. Soon after he arrived back at Apple, for example, he attempted to buy Palm for $1 billion, according to a Silicon Valley executive familiar with the offer. Palm rejected the idea, this executive said.

Now, with the release of the newest version of the Macintosh operating system, Mr. Jobs appears intent on taking Apple itself into the hand-held market. The move would play into Apple’s so-called digital hub strategy, in which the Macintosh desktop computer is the center of a web of peripheral devices.

The highly anticipated Macintosh OS X, Version 10.2, which began shipping on the company’s newest computers last week, will go on sale for existing Macintosh users on Saturday. While the software is being marketed as an improvement for desktop computer users, it could have just as big a future in powering a yet-to-be announced Apple hand-held computer-phone.

Mr. Jobs continues to be coy. He insists that he still dislikes the idea of the conventional personal digital assistant, saying that the devices are too hard to use and offer little real utility. But a telephone with personal digital assistant features is another matter.

“We decided that between now and next year, the P.D.A. is going to be subsumed by the telephone,” he said last week in an interview. “We think the P.D.A. is going away.”

And even while protesting that the company had no plans to introduce such a device, he grudgingly acknowledged that combining some of Apple’s industrial design and user-interface innovations would be a good idea in a device that performed both phone and computing functions.

A look at the laundry list of features in the company’s new version of OS X indicates that a computer-phone is much more than a vague idea for Apple.

Of the 12 new OS X features the company has been emphasizing on its Web site, most would be desirable for a hand-held phone, including chat capabilities, mail, an address book, calendar features, automatic networking and a synchronization feature that will become available in September.

And several of the features, including the company’s handwriting-recognition technology and Sherlock information-retrieval program, would be much more relevant to a small, portable device than to a desktop computer.

Sherlock in particular has been repositioned in a way that would make it a perfect counterpart for a portable phone. Its original purpose, which was finding files and content on the computer’s local disk, has been transformed into a more general “find” utility program. Now, Sherlock is being extended to search for types of information like airline and movie schedules and restaurant locations. The software can display maps and driving directions.

But details of the plan are unlikely to emerge from Mr. Jobs or his team before Apple is ready to introduce a new product. The company, which in the 1980’s and 90’s was known among reporters as “a ship that leaks from the top,” is now obsessive about guarding the secrecy of its future products.

All Mr. Jobs would say on the matter was that the cellphone computers already on the market fall far short, and that some of the user-interface and industrial design touches already evident in the iPod would be perfect for an improved, consumer-friendly version of such a product.

An Apple phone could be a particularly tempting product for Mr. Jobs, giving him the opportunity to overcome Mr. Sculley’s largest failure. He could also rectify the Newton’s single biggest shortcoming: the device’s inability to communicate easily with the Macintosh desktop computer. Apple has already begun offering Bluetooth local wireless networking technology for peripheral devices, a feature that would make it simple to share information between a phone and a computer.

Furthermore, the cost of adding phone capabilities to palmtop computers is falling rapidly.

“It’s easier and easier for a company like Apple to go to a Taiwanese manufacturer for wireless telephone components,” said David Carey, chief executive of Portelligent, a technical market research company based in Austin, Tex. He said the parts required for adding advanced cellular capabilities to a device now cost as little as $50.

Of course, that is why Mr. Jobs’s greatest challenge with an iPhone might be elbowing his way into a crowded marketplace, where other companies already have supplier and manufacturing relationships in place.

“There’s no question that Apple could design a cool phone,” said Andy Neff, a Bear, Stearns analyst in New York. “The key is being able to build an infrastructure.”

———–

washingtonpost.com

FCC OK Unleashes XtremeSpectrum

By Michael Bruno Washtech.com Wednesday, May 29, 2002; Page E05

It’s been a long wait for Vienna-based XtremeSpectrum Inc.

The company has been developing semiconductor technology for wireless transmission of information since it was first funded in November 1998. But the ultra-wideband technology, caught up in a 3 1/2-year examination by the Federal Communications Commission, was just approved a month ago. The company now plans to ship its ultra-wideband chips to its business partners in the next two months.

The move means that by Christmas 2003, consumers may be able to wirelessly transfer movies, digital photos, MP3 clips and other large multimedia files between their computing devices at speeds 10 times faster than the current leading technology.

It also means that XtremeSpectrum hopes to become a leading provider of consumer-focused UWB technology, a field some analysts believe will burgeon soon.

UWB is the latest technology to take on the personal-area-network market, the mass of cables and electronic devices that pervades many homes and small businesses. For the past few years, users have had the option to go wireless, but the trade-off was that their data transfer speeds were not as fast.

Devices such as digital TVs, personal data assistants and MP3 players all use data formats where the speed of the data flow ranges from thousand of bits per second, such as MP3 at 320 Kbps, to millions of bits per second, such as DVDs at 10 Mbps.

Up to now, users had to choose from three formats — Bluetooth, Wi-Fi (802.11b) or 802.11a — to connect their equipment, and each has a downside. Bluetooth, once promoted by big-name tech companies, requires little power but offers speeds of only around 1 Mbps. Wi-Fi, the most prominent of the three technologies, offers speeds of 11 Mbps but needs more power. And 802.11a offers speeds of 54 Mbps but requires lots of power.

On the other hand, UWB promises speeds up to 100 Mbps and requires low power. A stand-alone device can be powered with a single AA battery, according to XtremeSpectrum.

The difference is in how the technology works. Traditionally, a carrier, such as a radio station, has an assigned frequency. UWB operates across a wide gamut of spectrum — 3.1 to 10.6 gigahertz and 24 GHz — and pulses the information instead of carrying it.

“We believe this will be a serious threat to Bluetooth and 802.11,” said David Hoover, an analyst at the Precursor Group in Washington.

Gemma Paulo, a wireless analyst with Arizona-based market research firm In-Stat/MDR, is less sanguine. She said UWB could complement Bluetooth but that it is “not really” a serious threat because federal regulations say it must limit its effectiveness to within 10 meters — although that limitation could be loosened.

According to In-Stat, the home networking market is expected to reach $3.5 billion in 2004 and $4.9 billion in 2006. The wireless portion of that market should hit $2.5 billion in 2004 and grow to $3.7 billion in 2006.

Neither Precursor nor In-Stat provide consulting or investment banking services, the analysts said. Their respective research groups also do not have financial relationships with the companies they cover.

The UWB concept was first developed in the 1950s but didn’t get anywhere until the late 1970s when the Defense Advanced Research Products Agency, a research and development organization for the U.S. military, became interested. In other forms, UWB can be a radar technology that can “see” through walls, forests and under ground.

“They got very interested in ultra-wideband because of its very low cost,” said Robert J. Fontana, president and founder of Germantown-based Multispectral Solutions Inc.

Multispectral Solutions has completed 64 contracts on UWB systems, such as ground-penetrating radar, with the military since late 2000. The 15-person company has been profitable from the start, and Fontana predicts that annual revenue will grow from almost $3 million to $4.5 million or $5 million as the federal government beefs up homeland defense efforts.

But before UWB could be applied commercially, the FCC had to approve it, and that was a long and controversial process. Since UWB spans a range of frequencies already used by wireless phone carriers and various federal agencies, including the global positioning system community, several established interests saw UWB as competition or merely interference. It took the National Telecommunications and Information Administration from September 1998 to February 2002 to negotiate a compromise. The FCC finalized its approval on April 23.

Because UWB pulses a low-power signal across a swath of radio spectrum, rather than streaming a signal on a specific frequency, it would not interfere with broadcasts on any one band.

“It probably produces less interference than a hair dryer being turned on,” said Rich Doherty, an analyst at the Envisioneering Group of Seaford, N.Y.

Still, the FCC is permitting its use in stages; the radio-frequency noise from a UWB device must be2,000 times lower than that emitted by a personal computer, baby monitor or garage door opener. If that produces no interference with other systems, higher levels of power — and increased range of effectiveness — may be approved.

Likewise, because UWB does not boost a signal on a particular frequency, UWB providers do not have to use equipment needed to carry a signal, which in turn knocks down the cost of UWB products.

XtremeSpectrum invested heavily in winning approval of UWB. Although Martin Rofheart, XtremeSpectrum chief executive and co-founder, declined to discuss how much was spent lobbying the government, the company hired 18 people for the effort.

“It was huge,” said analyst Hoover. “They spent a good portion of their [money] on lobbying.”

It was worth it, Rofheart said. Because XtremeSpectrum — formed a month after the regulatory debate began — was so intimately involved in the regulatory process, its chipsets were ready as soon as the FCC gave the final go-ahead.

“We’re trying to beat everyone to market,” Rofheart said.

“They basically designed their [chipset] around how they thought the FCC was going to rule,” analyst Paulo said.

Rofheart won’t discuss revenue projections for 57-person XtremeSpectrum, but he said the company won’t start counting sales until next year when its manufacturing partners start selling their consumer products during the holidays. He expects profitability in 2004.

Meanwhile, the company will rely on its venture capital. Funders include Cisco Systems Inc., Motorola Inc., Texas Instruments Inc., Alliance Technology Ventures, Granite Ventures and Novak Biddle Venture Partners. XtremeSpectrum officials have declined to discuss how much they have raised but plan to announce more funding, including new investors, within a month.

That’s good news since the competition is growing. Multispectral Solutions is expanding from government sales to the commercial market. Fontana said his company would introduce geolocation services and audio networking, such as audio systems in churches and arenas, over the next six months.

XtremeSpectrum’s leading rival, Time Domain Corp. of Alabama, has said its PulsON chipsets also will be available to its partners this year. Time Domain, which has an office in the District, is focusing on wireless broadband links and precision radar products.

According to analyst Hoover, Time Domain and XtremeSpectrum are sitting pretty: They are the leading companies in a marketplace that looks to take off.

“They definitely have their foothold,” he said. “They’re going to be around.”

Paulo with In-Stat said XtremeSpectrum has the edge.

“Time Domain wants to be in the consumer space, but they don’t seem to have an organized focus,” she said. “XtremeSpectrum is the only company that seems to know how to play in the commercial realm. The other companies seem to be a little bit more disorganized.”

© 2002 The Washington Post Company

———–

Wednesday January 16 02:00 PM EST

Xbox may spawn entertainment hub By David Becker CNET News.com

Microsoft plans to transform its new Xbox game console into a general home device that handles everything from e-mail to video recording, according to analysts.

Prudential Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann, who covers graphics chip maker Nvidia, released a report Tuesday, stating that HomeStation, a multifunction consumer appliance that has been the subject of rumor and speculation for several months, is real and could dramatically change the PC market. Mosesmann argued that Nvidia, which provides chips for the Xbox, could be one of the companies to benefit from the Homestation.

Richard Doherty, president of research firm The Envisioneering Group, said in an interview that based on briefings with Microsoft and its suppliers, he believes a version of the HomeStation will be on the market by this fall.

“They were really supposed to announce this last week” at the Consumer Electronics Show, Doherty said, “but manufacturing commitments must still be tied up.”

Microsoft representatives declined to comment on the HomeStation reports.

Mosesmann said the HomeStation will be based on the Xbox design, which is similar to that of a PC and has standard PC components and features such as USB ports. Besides playing Xbox games, the HomeStation will act as a digital video recorder, similar to devices from TiVo and Sonicblue’s ReplayTV, and will perform Internet functions such as e-mail and Web surfing.

The device will also play DVD movies and digital music tracks. The HomeStation would hook into Microsoft’s .Net online strategy by serving as a conduit for services such as streaming media and online shopping, he said.

Most of those functions could be handled by the current Xbox with minimal retrofitting, Mosesmann said in an interview.

“It’s basically a PC; it has DVD capability,” he said. “You would just add some connectivity there, a bigger hard drive, some video recording software, some Bluetooth–and voila, you’ve got something that can be marketed as something else.”

Based on unofficial discussions with Microsoft suppliers, Mosesmann said he expects Microsoft to announce the HomeStation late this year and have it on the market next year.

Doherty foresees a more accelerated time schedule, with some version of the HomeStation on the market this fall, thanks to competition from start-up Moxi Digital, which last week announced a similar home entertainment hub.

Doherty said Microsoft had hoped to license the HomeStation design to other manufacturers, with the most likely parties being PC makers such as Dell Computer. But the newly competitive field may force Microsoft to handle production on its own, as it has done–at great expense–with the Xbox.

“They were really trying to license, but they’ve also been running into Moxi as competition,” Doherty said.

The HomeStation would fit into plans Microsoft announced last week that would turn PCs into digital entertainment jukeboxes for the home. Microsoft’s Mira technology, for example, will allow display manufacturers to produce wireless, portable screens that can access information and media stored on the PC from anywhere in the home.

Meanwhile, Microsoft’s Freestyle will expand the Windows XP operating system with functions for recording video, playing DVDs, and other entertainment tasks.

“They are different approaches that help the HomeStation do its media center job,” Doherty said.

Where it hits home Mosesmann said HomeStation could have a major effect on the PC market by drawing a sharp distinction between home PCs and business PCs.

“I think the consumer PC market becomes pretty tough if something like the HomeStation becomes real,” he said. “Then it doesn’t matter where you’re located in the home. That’s been the problem with getting the consumer PC to do more: It sits in your den, and nobody wants to watch movies in their den.”

HomeStation could also give Microsoft a leg up in the game market by expanding the Xbox with functionality that console market leader Sony would be hard-pressed to match in its PlayStation 2, Mosesmann said.

“I think it would be difficult for Sony to meet this kind of dynamic,” he said. “They’re using these custom chips that are quite expensive and not easily transferable to other applications.”

Sony last year announced hardware add-ons and content partnerships that would allow the PlayStation 2 to handle online tasks such as e-mail and streaming media.

Technology Business Research analyst Bob Sutherland said the HomeStation strategy makes sense given the design of the Xbox and Microsoft’s consumer goals.

“Look what the Xbox has got on it,” he said. “It has a hard drive, so why doesn’t it become a TiVo? Why doesn’t it become a computer? Why doesn’t it become a home entertainment controller?…It can become all of that.”

Other analysts were more skeptical, saying Microsoft still has plenty of work ahead just to establish the Xbox as a game format.

“There have always been conspiracy theories about what Microsoft’s real intentions are for Xbox,” said P.J. McNealy, research director at Gartner. “Microsoft is making some efforts to be a consumer electronics brand, but it’s clearly something new for them.”

Matt Rosoff, an analyst for research firm Directions on Microsoft, said the HomeStation doesn’t match any Microsoft plans he knows of for the next 12 to 18 months and that it’s futile to speculate beyond that.

“In the early days of the eHome division, there were some proposals for a device like this,” Rosoff said. “But from what I know, the eHome division is no longer working on anything like this. We hear stuff all the time for projects that Microsoft is supposedly working on that never see the light of day.”

Rosoff said Microsoft has its hands full with current Xbox plans.

“I don’t think they’re going to make any major revisions to the Xbox for the next 12 to 18 months, as far as a bigger hard drive or more memory,” he said. “And I don’t envision them putting out an entirely new product in the next few years–it just doesn’t make sense. Beyond that point, there may be all sorts of things bubbling under the organization.”

News.com’s Joe Wilcox contributed to this report

Right now they can propagate address book info to a few wireless devices like RIM, and some PalmOS stuff, but it’s all kiddie games compared to what the future holds.

Being a proponent of truly intimate computing, my question is: why bother with all of these intermediary steps? Why not just interface directly to my brain? 🙂

-Ian.

At 3:05 PM -0700 10/26/00, John Poyser wrote:>http://research.compaq.com/wrl/projects/Factoid/factoid.html
>
>I just stumbled across this Factoid page while looking at the latest updates
>to the Itsy project. I was excited by this concept as it mirrors what I have
>been saying for a long time.
>
>I truly believe that our current digital accessories (PDA’s, PC’s, cell
>phone address books, bookmark link files, mail log files, etc.) are all
>imperfect attempts at one thing: offline storage for our brains.
>
>We all use these items to some extent – and I have long tried to use my
>Palm, Outlook message files, IExplorer bookmarks & history file and
>search engines – as a crutch to my imperfect, human memory.
>
>I read an article written about time management and organization in an
>in-flight magazine a number of years ago and in it, they discussed the
>concept of off-loading your to-do’s and agenda items into your day-planner
>(then a Franklin or Filofax). The idea was you could free up your “mental
>stack” for more creative uses, instead of trying to remember item 33 of the
>38 things one had to do.
>
>As long as one consistently records things into a searchable database – no
>problem. But it is generally the things that you forget to record, or that
>it doesn’t occur to you to record, that can prove the most critical down the
>road. So, often I find myself recording trivia into Outlook or my PDA –
>hedging my bets that it will be useful later. Too often, I am sure that I
>recorded something, and cannot find it quickly or conveniently in my current
>collection of devices.
>
>If all of my devices were connected (via some low-powered, pan-dimensional,
>pervasive wireless medium – maybe “Bluetooth-Lite”?) then all my data would
>be indexed and quickly retrievable. Also, I feel that I am probably like a
>lot of my peers, in that my desire to have the information is greater than
>my paranoia about privacy.
>
>Factoid could be built into my watch, keychain, whatever I carry with me
>constantly. Then if I needed to access something, I would simply use a
>convenient data retrieval interface, like a PDA, PC or information
>appliance.
>
>I know there are some hurdles to jump – and this is a long way off but damn,
>I want it.
>
>jp
>
>