As you’ll recall from Monday, I bought my Nortel for about $0.72 and I just sold at today’s close for about $1.07 (US Priced). Not a bad return for a four day investment. I suspect tomorrow Nortel will trend downward, given that it’s a Friday and there will be some profit takers. If that happens, I will buy in again tomorrow afternoon or Monday AM. I still believe in my original investment strategy, however, and Nortel is not a long term hold for me. Next big announcement and I’m out for sure, possibly for good.

Maybe I can rebuild my RRSP just trading this one stock. I just inflated it by 45%. 🙂

-Ian.

—— http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/021024/tech_nortel_stock_3.html Reuters Nortel shares race higher as cash concerns ease Thursday October 24, 3:05 pm ET By Franco Pingue

(Adds analyst comment, updates share price. Figures in U.S. dollars unless noted)

TORONTO, Oct 24 (Reuters) – Shares of Nortel Networks Corp. (Toronto:NT.TO – News; NYSE:NT – News) charged higher on Thursday as fears that the company’s cash reserves were drying up began to ease, while some investors rushed to cover short positions.

ADVERTISEMENT Nortel shares, which have soared 149 percent since touching a low of 65 Canadian cents on Oct. 10, were up 26 Canadian cents, or 18 percent, at C$1.67 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

In New York, the shares were ahead 17 cents, or 19 percent, at $1.07.

Short selling occurs when investors borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price. When markets rise, short sellers must quickly buy back the shares before the price runs too high.

“Things can only keep going down forever if you think they are going bankrupt,” said John Wilson, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets.

“Now that people are realizing that Nortel is not going to go bankrupt, or that there is a very low risk of that happening, then they are willing to pay a much higher price for the stock.”

Last week Nortel, one of the world’s largest telecom equipment makers, posted a narrower third-quarter loss, in line with expectations, and said it was on track to return to profit.

Wilson, who has an “outperform” rating on Nortel shares with a $2 target price, also said that he does not expect spending in the tech industry to rebound next year.

“Next year we fully believe (capital expenditures) will be down again, spending will be down and Nortel’s revenues will be down, but as long as you don’t think they’re going bankrupt there is a price for everything.”

Benoit Chotard, an analyst with National Bank Financial, who feels Nortel’s stock was oversold recently, also does not see a spending recovery in the battered technology industry until 2004.

“The perception was too negative on Nortel,” said Benoit Chotard, an analyst with National Bank Financial. “Things are much better than what was anticipated in the context of a very tough environment.”

Chotard has a “market perform” rating on Nortel shares with a target price of C$1.50.

($1=$1.56 Canadian)

On Monday, October 21, 2002, at 07:52 AM, Ian Andrew Bell wrote:

> Nortel is probably going to experience a rally today based on news of
> a Wireless deal in China worth $280M. But they could experience a
> more sustained rally over the next two weeks as rumours fly around
> about their intended reaction to their plight.
>
> Now, I have virtually nothing to substantiate these predictions, so
> please take them with a grain of salt:
>
> 1) I think that Nortel has put their Enterprise products & services
> group, which is profitable, in play. I suspect their goal is to sell
> it for some quick cash. I would expect this to get between $5Bn and
> $7Bn and would stem the tide of impending doom for several years.
> 2) I think that they’ll use part of that money to write down and
> shutter the Optical business. Beneficiaries of this will include
> Juniper and to a lesser extent Cisco.
>
> I think that this puts the entire company very much in play for an
> acquisition by Cisco or Alcatel, except for one thing: cash in the
> bank.
>
> So, this morning I bought Juniper and Nortel, and we’ll see what
> happens.
>
> -Ian.
>
> ———–
> FoIB mailing list — Bits, Analysis, Digital Group Therapy
> https://ianbell.com:8888/foib.html

———–

Now, I have virtually nothing to substantiate these predictions, so please take them with a grain of salt:

1) I think that Nortel has put their Enterprise products & services group, which is profitable, in play. I suspect their goal is to sell it for some quick cash. I would expect this to get between $5Bn and $7Bn and would stem the tide of impending doom for several years. 2) I think that they’ll use part of that money to write down and shutter the Optical business. Beneficiaries of this will include Juniper and to a lesser extent Cisco.

I think that this puts the entire company very much in play for an acquisition by Cisco or Alcatel, except for one thing: cash in the bank.

So, this morning I bought Juniper and Nortel, and we’ll see what happens.

-Ian.

———–

Press Release SOURCE: Infonetics Research

Next Gen Voice Product Market Hit $233.6M In 2Q02; Strong Growth Expected In Asia Pacific

SAN JOSE, CA–(INTERNET WIRE)–Aug 22, 2002 — Worldwide revenue for next gen voice products totaled $233.6 million in 2Q02, an 18% decline from 1Q02, and is projected to reach $1.1 billion in CY02, according to Infonetics Research’s quarterly worldwide market share and forecast service, Next Gen Voice Products.

“Vendors are focusing on the IOCs and MSOs in the US and incumbent service providers in Asia, as they offer near-term opportunity,” said Kevin Mitchell, Infonetics Research analyst and lead author of the report. “Packet telephony is still undoubtedly the future of voice–we’re still headed toward an all-packet world–but the market is maturing at an inopportune time as service providers continue to cut expenditures or close up shop altogether. On the bright side, there’s enormous opportunity in the Asia Pacific region: in 2Q02, revenue for next gen voice hardware and software totaled $40 million in Asia Pacific, and we project it to hit $237 million in CY02, representing 21% of worldwide revenue totals.”

Media servers are now tracked in this report because they are a crucial part of the softswitch architecture and will play a more important role in the future as service providers deploy next gen services on packet networks. The worldwide softswitch market was fairly robust in 2Q02, growing 14%, and showing strength in EMEA and Asia Pacific. Worldwide revenue for media servers totaled $6.7 million in 2Q02, an 83% increase from 1Q02.

Infonetics Research’s Next Gen Voice service includes quarterly updated forecasts for all regions–worldwide, North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, and ROW–tracking voice over broadband gateways, broadband loop carriers, RAC VoIP gateways, voice/data switches, media servers, softswitches, and voice application servers. Companies tracked in this service include Alcatel, Broadsoft, Cirpack, Cisco, ComMatch, CommWorks, Convedia, Convergent, General Bandwidth, Integral Access, IPUnity, Italtel, LongBoard, Lucent, MetaSwitch, NexVerse, Nortel, Nuera, Occam Networks, Santera, Siemens, Snowshore, Sonus Networks, Sylantro Systems, tdSoft, Tekelec, Telcordia, Telica, Terayon, UTStarcom, VocalData, Zhone, and others.

For the table of contents of this report, which includes methodology notes, please contact Larry Howard, Vice President, at larry [at] infonetics [dot] com or 408.298.7999 x225.

Infonetics Research (www.infonetics.com) is an international market research and consulting firm covering the networking and telecommunications industries in the US/Canada, Europe, and Asia. We provide objective analysis of end-user and service provider buying plans and product manufacturer market share and market size through in-depth research studies and quarterly market share and forecast services.

2001 a roller coaster for telecoms Sector remains a big driver in B.C. high tech even after a rough year

by Glen Korstrom

A turbulent telecommunications sector has changed the face of this year’s list of B.C.’s 100 biggest high-tech employers.

While former market darlings have fallen on tough times and off the list, perennial chart-topper Telus Corp. remains at the head of the pack, new players have arrived and several upstarts have jumped a few rungs. (See page 18 for the full 2002 list of biggest high-tech companies in B.C.)

Newcomer Bell West, created April 11 from the merger of the former Bell Intrigna and Bell Nexxia, has burst onto BIV’s list at number 39, with 175 local employees.

Bell will likely make further inroads in BIV’s tech list in coming years, as its divisions with B.C. employees include:

cell phone provider Bell Mobility;

home satellite group Bell ExpressVu;

media division Bell Globemedia (which includes employees at CTV and the Globe and Mail);

retail stores under the Bell World banner; and

Web portal VancouverPlus.ca.

In total, Bell’s parent company BCE has more than 700 employees in B.C., said Bell West sales director Garrett Ungaro.

Bell West’s Vancouver-based general manager John Stoddart said the merger eliminates some duplication in the two Bell arms, which provide services in the voice and data sectors, including high-speed Internet.

But he does not expect layoffs to result from the merger because growth will be sufficient to keep everybody busy.

While much has been made of Bell’s foray into Telus’s backyard, telecom analyst Eamon Hoey of Toronto’s Hoey and Associates said B.C.’s largest high tech company has no reason to shake in its boots now that its prime competition has restructured.

Although Hoey praised Bell West’s management as having “more juice” than the previous team at the two former divisions, he sees the emergence of Bell West as healthy for Telus because it forces Telus to provide good service for low cost.

“There’s nothing worse than having inferior competition,” said Hoey.

Telus has no intention of relinquishing its top spot among B.C. technology employers anytime soon. Past growth in the province has come from acquiring Vancouver companies such as Web design firm Columbus Group, and Telus spokesperson Doug Strachan said that growth strategy is likely to continue in the future. “We made it clear from the beginning that we intend to defend and grow our home markets,” Strachan said.

Other recent successes include Alcatel, a telecom equipment giant with 99,000 employees globally. It makes its debut appearance on BIV’s tech list this year, at number 22. Although the company is based in France, it has 270 B.C. employees, engaged mainly in research and development. Its latest product, the 7670 RSP media gateway, was developed jointly by Alcatel’s Ottawa and Burnaby staff. That product expands the delivery of data services to businesses and consumers, providing video-on-demand and online business transactions among other services.

Alcatel Canada’s ceo Hubert de Pesquidoux explained that much of his company’s B.C. growth can be attributed to the fact that this is where Alcatel employees want to live. “People love B.C. and Vancouver.”

He said he had tried to promote some top performers in the Burnaby office by offering them stints in Europe, but they turned him down because they didn’t want to leave B.C.

Alcatel is new to BIV’s list because the company declined to provide staff numbers in 2001. Telecom equipment provider Glentel Inc. similarly provided numbers for the first time this year and jumped onto BIV’s 2002 list at No. 17.

Other telecoms provided figures previously, but declined to get specific this time around. 360networks, which has had to scale back its ambitious plans to build a worldwide fibreoptic network, said it had 200 local staff last year and 1,500 worldwide. The company, now under creditor protection as it tries to restructure, would not provide figures this year, but in a recent court filing said it now has 172 workers in its Canadian and Atlantic offices.

Similarly, Redback Networks refused to provide updated figures after telling BIV that it had 230 employees in Burnaby last year.

The U.S.-based manufacturer of broadband communications systems has suffered job cuts and a steep revenue drop over the past year.

Embattled telecom Nortel Networks Corp. had 270 staff in Richmond in September 2000. For the past two years, the company, which has also cut jobs, refused to provide local employee figures.

Meanwhile, Convedia Corp., a local developer of Internet voice and video technology, has jumped 16 spots in the list, moving to 82 from 98 last year. That company netted US$20 million in venture funding in September 2001, and soon after hired 13 additional staff. It now has 70 employees. Convedia CEO Peter Briscoe added that he intends to hire more technical and business development employees.

Motorola Canada Ltd. jumped three spots to take the number 17 position.

Other local players in the telecom sector have felt the impact of a global slowdown in telecom spending. Argus Technologies, GT Group Telecom, Rogers AT&T Wireless and Microcell Telecommunications (branded as Fido) all dropped down the list.

Telecom turmoil spurs movement

B.C.’s biggest telecom firms ranked by number of employees..

Company 2002 2001 Local employees Telus 1 1 13,154 PMC Sierra 8 5 600 MDSI Mobile Data Solutions 13 12 360 Glentel Inc. 17 NR 300 Motorola Canada Ltd. 17 20 300 Alcatel 22 NR 270 Rogers AT&T Wireless 22 19 270 Argus Technologies 32 27 215 Alpha Technologies Ltd. 34 43 202 AT&T Canada Corp. 35 38 200 GT Group Telecom 39 28 175 Bell West 39 NR 175 Microcell Telecommunications 41 40 172 Spectrum Signal Processing 44 48 158 Radiant Communication Services 61 NR 110 Convedia Corp. 82 98 70 Sprint Canada Inc. 82 82 70 Norsat Int’l 82 NR 70 NR = Not Ranked

Source: BIV TOP 100 LIST

 

Tuesday November 20, 8:15 pm Eastern Time

Press Release SOURCE: Infonetics Research, Inc.

Next Gen Voice Product Market Hits $135 Million in 3Q01

Will Reach $465 Million in 3Q02

SAN JOSE, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nov. 20, 2001–Worldwide revenues for next gen voice products totaled $135 million in 3Q01 — down 6% from last quarter — and are forecasted to hit $465 million in 3Q02, according to Infonetics Research’s quarterly worldwide market share and forecast service, Next Gen Voice Products, released today. Voice/data switches, voice over broadband gateways, VoIP gateways, class 5 packet gateways, and softswitches are tracked and forecasted in this service.

In recent quarters and into the near term, more next gen voice hardware than softswitches are being sold as initial service provider build-outs focus on footprint and tactical cost savings measures such as packet tandem and Internet offload. Softswitches and application servers will make up a larger portion of next gen voice product revenues during later phases of deployment.

“3Q01 was a mixed quarter for this market,” said Infonetics Research analyst Kevin Mitchell. “Hardware revenues declined 15%, but softswitches are up 8% from the previous quarter. Overall, we are bullish on this market for the long term.”

“The softswitch market is still in developmental mode and revenues have been flat the past 3 quarters. This market is experiencing a slow start due to the complexity of the softswitch architecture. We expect it to heat up in the second half of 2002 as service providers look to either augment their existing voice services or start from scratch with service delivery softswitches.”

Companies tracked in this service include Alcatel, Cirpack, Clarent, comMatch, CommWorks, Convergent Networks, CopperCom, General Bandwidth, Integral Access, ipVerse, Jetstream Communications, Lucent, Mockingbird Networks, Nortel, Nuera, Santera, Sonus Networks, Syndeo, tdSoft, Telica, Terayon, Telcordia, TollBridge, Unisphere, VocalTec, Zhone, and others.

Next Gen Voice Products helps companies understand the size of the market, the speed at which it’s growing, how it will grow in the future, and who’s leading in the various segments of the market. The quarterly service, delivered electronically, provides worldwide market share and shipment data, and forecast data divided by North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, and the rest of the world.

For the table of contents of this report, which includes methodology notes, please contact:

* Larry Howard, Vice President, Western North America larry [at] infonetics [dot] com, 408/298-7999 x225 * Paul Ruggeri, Director of Sales, Eastern North America paul [at] infonetics [dot] com, 401/826-2160 * Gautam Sabharwal, Account Manager, Europe and ROW gautam [at] infonetics [dot] com, +44 (0) 19-2343-8276

-Ian.

Forbes.com Alcatel In Takeover Talks With Lucent By Todd Jatras

News and views from Europe:

* French telecommunications equipment company Alcatel is in negotiations to acquire struggling counterpart Lucent Technologies for more than $40 billion in an all-stock deal, according to The New York Times. Alcatel has previously said it is looking at certain Lucent operations, but denies it is considering a bid for the whole company. If Alcatel’s SergeTchurukSerge Tchuruk succeeded in buying Lucent, it would be one of the biggest gambles yet for the Frenchman of Armenian descent, who has made his name using astute deals to bring companies back from the brink.

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/19/technology/19LUCE.html

May 19, 2001

Lucent and Alcatel Said to Re-assess Possible Deal

By SIMON ROMERO and ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

ritical reaction yesterday from investors about Alcatel’s plan to acquire Lucent Technologies prompted the two communications equipment companies to consider re-evaluating the terms of a possible merger, executives close to the talks said.

Alcatel, Europe’s No. 2 maker of telecommunications equipment, had been considering paying more than $40 billion for Lucent but is now unlikely to pay much more than the $34 billion that Lucent is currently worth, the executives said. Alcatel is backpedaling a bit after its stock tumbled 7.2 percent yesterday, falling 2.60 euros, to 33.40 euros ($29.37) after a report about the talks in The New York Times. Shares of Lucent rose 14 cents, to $9.95.

The deal, which both sides have privately said would be billed as a merger of equals, would nonetheless still be an acquisition of Lucent by Alcatel, the executives said. Lucent’s board is expected to meet next week to consider whether to enter into formal negotiations with Alcatel.

Spokesmen for Alcatel and Lucent declined to comment yesterday.

A combination is seen as more palatable to Henry B. Schacht, Lucent’s chairman and chief executive, if it puts Lucent on an equal footing with Alcatel, people close to the companies said yesterday.

After all, Lucent, based in Murray Hill, N.J., was the world’s largest maker of communications equipment until recently. Only in the last couple of years has Alcatel of France ‹ retooled by its chairman and chief executive, Serge Tchuruk, with an emphasis on selling a new generation of communications products ‹ come to be viewed as a serious competitor of Lucent and Nortel Networks of Canada.

Mr. Schacht, Lucent’s first chief executive when it was spun off from AT&T in 1996, returned last October to head its restructuring effort. He is known to value strengthening Lucent’s businesses more than selling them. But it is not entirely clear with whom and how control would rest if Lucent were to merge with Alcatel.

Risks from a possible deal for Alcatel also became apparent yesterday. In addition to the drop in its share price, Alcatel’s debt rating was put on review for a possible downgrade by Standard & Poor’s. Earlier this week, Moody’s Investors Service gave Alcatel a negative outlook. If those agencies lower their ratings, that could translate into increased borrowing costs for Alcatel.

There is also concern over the cash Alcatel would need to buy Lucent’s optical business, for which it has submitted a bid, and over resources Alcatel would have to commit to reduce Lucent’s debt if a merger occurred.

National security questions were raised yesterday about the prospects that Bell Labs, Lucent’s research arm, with 30,000 scientists, could be absorbed into a foreign company. An aide for Senator Robert G. Torricelli, Democrat of New Jersey, the state where Lucent is based, said that the senator had expressed his concern to Lucent officials.